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National survey results reveal capercaillie numbers at critically low levels


By Gavin Musgrove

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There may be as few as 500 capercaillie remaining in the wild, it is being warned. Picture: Jude Dinham-Price.
There may be as few as 500 capercaillie remaining in the wild, it is being warned. Picture: Jude Dinham-Price.

The latest national survey has estimated there has been another fall in capercaillie number despite millions being spent to save the bird in Scotland.

There are now believed to be only around 542 individual capercaillie in the country.

This is a reduction of around 50 percent from the previous survey, putting the population at real risk of extinction.

Conservation scientists have identified that capercaille decline is being fuelled by a combination of factors which reduce their survival and breeding success.

The survey results – coming on the back of NatureScot’s Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC) report which was published in February – add further urgency to the work to help the world's largest grouse in Scotland.

The country’s capercaillie population is surveyed every six years, and this – the sixth survey – was conducted over the winter of 2021/22.

It was funded by RSPB Scotland, NatureScot, Cairngorms National Park Authority, Cairngorms Capercaillie Project, Forestry and Land Scotland, and Scottish Forestry, with RSPB Scotland undertaking the fieldwork and scientific analysis of the results.

Between November and March over 1500km of transects were walked through areas in Badenoch and Strathspey, Easter Ross, Morayshire, Nairnshire, Deeside and Perthshire recording sightings of the birds as well as signs of their presence such as feathers and droppings.

The survey found that the Cairngorms National Park is estimated to have 85 per cent of the total population.

Capercaillie populations range from Iberia in the southwest of Europe to Siberia and Mongolia in Central Asia in temperate and boreal forest. The UK population is only found in Scotland, mostly in Scots Pine forests that have a rich growth of blaeberry on the forest floor.

Numbers of capercaillie here have been declining since the third national survey of 2003/04 when there were estimated to be about 2000 birds.

The latest results represent the largest drop in numbers since 2000, and the first time they have dipped to fewer than 1000; the population is now at a critically low level.

The factors causing the decline are complex ranging from cold, wet spring weather impacting the fitness of female birds before the breeding season and affecting chick survival, along with predation and disturbance.

While habitat is continually being extended and enhanced, it remains fragmented in places and this work takes a much longer period of time to make a difference.

Survey partners will be working with Scottish Government to develop a strategy to reverse this decline, with a particular focus on the Cairngorms National Park area.

Andy Douse, NatureScot Ornithology Advisor, said: “It’s clear that the future of capercaillie in Scotland is extremely vulnerable. We recognise the urgency of the situation and the need to accelerate the partnership work that’s necessary to tackle threats to the species.

"This will require conservation agencies joining forces with landowners and local communities to step up action required to halt the decline, including building on the current Cairngorms Capercaillie Project, an innovative community-led capercaillie conservation project, with the Cairngorms National Park Authority.”

Andy Ford, Director of Nature and Climate Change at the Cairngorms National Park Authority said: “The results from the national survey are deeply concerning and we must all come together to decide what additional, swift actions can be implemented now to halt any further decline.

"The CNPA has been supporting land managers involved in capercaillie conservation since the publication of the capercaillie framework in 2015, most recently leading the NLHF funded Cairngorms Capercaillie Project which puts people at the heart of capercaillie conservation to find sustainable solutions to the issue of human disturbance and other causes of population decline. We will continue working closely with all involved to co-ordinate a strategic approach to conservation efforts and, crucially, deliver action on the ground.”

NatureScot’s SAC report highlighted that if the population continues to decline, the species could be lost to Scotland within two to three decades.

Following a thorough review of the scientific evidence, the sub committee advised that current breeding success is too low to allow recovery of the population.

It suggested that interventions that improve the survival of eggs and young chicks are especially important including predator control and diversional feeding and creation of refuges around hotspots to minimise disturbance.

Calls made for pine marten to be removed from Badenoch and Strathspey

It also reported that the survival of adults would be enhanced with more work to mark or remove deer fences, which can cause injury or death to birds in flight.

Whilst many deer fences have been removed or marked – to increase visibility and reduce collision risk – some unmarked fences in capercaillie areas are still in place.

The Cairngorms Capercaillie Project, which began in 2018, supports community-led action in the Cairngorms National Park to help the birds such as increasing awareness of their plight and working with recreational users such as mountain bikers and dog walkers to reduce disturbance in sensitive areas.

The project funds predator control work and is also waiting on the results of a study into the genetic diversity of the population within the national park and whether the gene pool needs to be expanded.

Separately the Cairngorms Connect partnership is trialling the use of diversionary feeding to lessen predation on nests and young chicks.

This is measuring the impact of providing alternative food for predators, limited to the critical capercaillie breeding months when the females are on eggs or the chicks are small.

Making habitats more resilient is also one of the key areas that organisations and land managers are focusing on to help capercaillie. In Scotland the forest habitat favoured by the birds is fragmented and dispersed.

Nick Wilkinson, Conservation Scientist at RSPB Scotland said: “This up-to-date estimate of capercaillie numbers reveals just how vulnerable the population in Scotland is. Previous surveys have seen numbers fluctuating between around 1000 and 2000 birds so it’s really worrying that the results from last winter indicate there are only an estimated 542 individuals remaining now.

"These results will help focus efforts on where action should be targeted to help capercaillie by identifying their strongholds and where the most impact can be made for them.”

Capercaillie are very shy and elusive birds, often perching in trees or hidden away in the forest floor. The males are known for their communal leks in the spring where they try to attract females, by fanning out their tail feathers, and making a series of clicking and popping noises.

Leks can often lead to fights between the males as they compete for a mate. The current population are descendants of birds reintroduced in Scotland in the 1830s after the original population went extinct during the previous century.

The survey is undertaken by a team of fieldworkers individually walking 2km long triangular routes or transects through a sample of woods where capercaillie have been recorded in the previous 10 years.

Areas that were geographically isolated from the rest of the range and with no records of capercaillie presence in the past five were removed from the survey. The fieldworker counts all capercaillie seen on each transect, usually when flushed from trees – pine needles are their main food in winter – or the ground.

From the numbers of birds counted at these sites, the numbers of birds in the areas not surveyed can be estimated by extrapolation and so obtain an estimate of the total population.

Capercaillie have been surveyed periodically every six years since the early 1990s during which the population has fluctuated between 1000 and 2000 birds.

1992-94 - 2200 birds (95% confidence limits 1500-3200)

1998/99 - 1073 (549-2041)

2003/04 - 1980 (1284-2758)

2009/10 - 1285 (822-1822)

2015/16 - 1114 (805-1505)


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